Monday, November 26, 2007

Still here treading water

I really don't have any new purchases to report. I did manage to get a couple of small fills on AWI.V and bought some more shares of ISF.V at .205 CDN. Both were steals trading at not too far above cash value.

One of the things I am doing at the moment besides looking outside the US is looking for companies with lots of assets on the books to go with earnings. I feel like there is a much better margin of safety for something with lots of cash per share like ISF.V or AWI.V are or for things trading at or below book value (also like ISF.V AWI.V). To that end there are a few on my radar screen with lots of assets. I still want earnings to go with those assets and ideally a PE under 10. There are still not many of those opportunities out there but the way the market is going I think there will be and I am very comfortable waiting for bargains to come to me.

This was my approach with AWI.V and I got my price. I also managed to pick up some shares of another stock I mentioned (KEQU) in between 12.60 and 13.25 shortly before their blockbuster earnings announcement. There was definitely some lucky timing there but the moral of the story is that right now is a good time to show patience.

In the meantime I have sold about a third of my TBTC. I had a substantial profit and alot of shares so given the thinly traded nature of the stock it seemed prudent to trim back some. Also sold about 10% of my ATRM primarily to build a bit more of a cash hoard.

There is another canadian equity I have my eye on. Its profitable with a modest PE and trading at about 20% over cash value. If it pans out I will mention it sometime in the next week or so.

In the meantime it pays to be cautious. A careful reading of some financials has saved me some utter disasters in recent weeks. I actually thought I might be buying AFT over a dollar before I took a good look at their SEC filings. Sloppiness would have cost me a 75% haircut if I didn't do proper DD. There was a time not too long ago where dart throwing worked and you could be sloppy. That time is over so my general advice is look before you leap then look again and only jump if you have a good quality parachute.

Looking for earnings on DWCH tomorrow. I don't have a ton of confidence but I am SWAGGING for .10-.12 a share. The next big report after that is AYSI in december and I am feeling pretty comfortable about a .03 EPS number. Mining in western australia continues to boom so I still see this as one of the best potential upsides of anything you will find for 2008.

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